Objective: We present an external validation study investigating the applicability of the preoperative Kattan nomogram for predicting recurrence after prostatectomy in a population of patients with serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels exceeding 20 ng/ml. Materials: In the evaluation of clinical parameters pooled from a total of 191 patients presenting with PSA levels ranging between 20.1 and 100 ng/ml, the PSA-free survival rate 60 months after surgery was calculated according to Kattan nomograms. Subsequently, the results were statistically compared with the corresponding actual survival rates obtained from Kaplan-Meier analysis. For this purpose, the patients were assigned to one of four different risk groups according to predictions derived from the Kattan nomograms, enabling a direct comparison of expected (as predicted by Kattan nomogram) versus actual survival of each patient investigated in our study. Results: Predicted PSA-free survival rates were determined to be as follows: 83% (low risk group); 66% (intermediate risk group); 39% (intermediate-high risk group), and 10% (high risk group) in comparison with the actual survival rates determined to be 63, 62, 40 and 21%, respectively. For PSA levels ranging between 20.1 and 30 ng/ml, 30.1 and 50 ng/ml, and 50.1 and 100 ng/dl, PSA-free survival rates were found to be 57, 37, and 27% (p = 0.0017), respectively, during a 5-year post-prostatectomy follow-up. Conclusions: The Kattan nomogram shows good statistical concordance with actual survival rates in the mean risk quadrants, but considerable differences were demonstrated concerning individuals with either a high or with a low risk of cancer progression.

Keywords:
Prostate cancer, risk of recurrence, Prostatectomy, Prostate-specific antigen level, elevated, Kattan nomogram
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© 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel
2006
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